As his poll numbers spiral downward, Donald Trump has begun to sow the seeds of doubt in the legitimacy of the election, suggesting that the “system is rigged” and that voter fraud is rampant.

Unfortunately for Trump, research studies on voter fraud just don’t bear that out.  According to the Brennan Center for Justice, ” there are surprisingly few sources recounting specific incidents of alleged voter fraud” and, by any measure, voter fraud is extraordinarily rare.  Moreover, “fraud by individual voters is a singularly foolish and ineffective way to attempt to win an election.”

Case in point, the largest study that tried to identify the prevalence of voter fraud was conducted by a Loyola Law School professor from 2000- 2004.  During that time frame, over one billion votes were cast nationally, yet only 31 cases of voter fraud were reported.  And of those 31 cases, more than half turned out to be paper errors, such as the voter signed the wrong line in the polling place roll book.

For those who are convicted of voter fraud, the penalty for each act of voter fraud connected to a federal election is five years in prison and a $10,000 fine, in addition to any state penalties. That is a steep punishment for just one incremental vote, even for the most ardent political supporter.  The risk simply doesn’t measure up with the reward.

What is Trump up to? Is this merely a distraction from the sexual assault claims, or his unreleased tax returns?  Or is he is planting the seeds for another challenge to the election?   Probably a little bit of both.

Rather than look to voter fraud, it’s possible that the Trump campaign is preparing to cast doubt on the outdated electronic voting systems used by some states that record votes directly into their memory, but do not have a paper trail.

There are currently eleven states that employ at least some voting machines that do not back up with paper receipts.  Four of them are battleground states:  Pennsylvania, Georgia, Virginia and Florida.

While Trump has thus far consistently blamed the “rigging” on the media, the Clinton campaign, illegal immigrants, impostors of the deceased, and even his fellow Republicans, a close election in one or more of these four states could ignite a bitter battle over the legitimacy of the election and the presidency, and compromise the peaceful transfer of power in our country.

Even Trump’s political consultant Roger Stone said in a recent radio interview, “For anybody who thinks that election fraud is not common in this country, the voting machine today is merely a computer. And all computers can be rigged to have a predetermined outcome.”

For the good of this country, let’s hope this election is not even close.

Map provided by Ballotpedia.  DRE refers to Direct Recording Electronic voting machine systems.  For a more in depth look at electronic voting systems go to Politico’s Sept. 7, 2016 article, Paperless Voting Could Fuel “Rigged” Election Claims.