THE MADISON BRIEF

Ahhh….the October Surprise.   

As certain as Punxasutawney Phil’s shadow can predict a change in the weather, the October Surprise is a well-known political phenomenon that has often changed the winds of fate for many presidential candidates.

William Saffire, the late New York times columnist, once described the October Surprise as a “last-minute disruption before an election; an unexpected political stunt, revelation, or diplomatic maneuver that could affect an election’s outcome.”

Take, for example,  October of 2008, when the financial markets crashed and John McCain hurried back to Washington from the campaign trail to “lead the country out of a crisis” only to discover that the entire matter was out of his hands.  Alas, McCain ended up looking weak and ineffective.  Few will remember that Barack Obama also returned to DC, but because he did so without great fanfare or expectations, he emerged unscathed…and three points ahead in the polls.

Or in October of 2012, when Hurricane Sandy hit the Jersey Shore, Americans watched Barack Obama and Chris Christie stage a bro-mance hug that conveyed a glimmer of hope that Obama could end the political polarization in Washington.  Come November, when polls showed Romney even with, if not slightly ahead, of Obama, it was Obama who earned the nod for another four years in the Oval Office.

This past weekend’s October Surprises, however, have been of a different sort.  They have been “helped along” by hackers and leakers who worm their way into databases, email boxes, and phone lines.

Late September, Susanne Craig, a New York Times Metro writer found a   brown manila envelope in her postal mailbox with a  Trump Tower return address.  Inside were copies of three pages of Donald Trump’s 1995 tax returns showing that he reported a loss of nearly one billion dollars — a loss that Trump could have used to avoid paying federal income taxes for a period of 18 years.  After confirming the documents authenticity through a former Trump accountant who prepared the document, the NY Times believed it was in the public interest to publish the documents this past weekend, although it is technically illegal.  The Times will  likely have to defend their actions in court as “whistle blowers” since Trump has already threatened to pursue litigation.

Not to be outdone, within hours of the release of the tax documents, the Trump campaign released a recording (from an unknown source) featuring Clinton speaking privately to a group of donors about the young Bernie Sanders supporters whom she described as “living in a basement” with their parents, having low paying jobs, facing substantial school debt.  Like clockwork, and in an effort to dissuade young voters from voting for Clinton, the Twitter hashtag “#basementdwellers” magically popped up, making her statement sound far more disparaging than the words she actually used.  Even Bernie Sanders didn’t find anything wrong with the message she was trying to convey.

So, folks, let’s vow to be thoughtful and measured with our reactions to any October Surprises this month.  We know that there are those who seek to challenge our democracy, to deligitimize our election by exposing bits and pieces of information that tantalize, but offer no context or relevancy to the presidency.   Let’s be wise about which “October Surprises” are stunts and which ones are revelations that matter.

After all, at this stage in the election, can we really be surprised by anything, anymore?