The Madison Brief:

Most political pundits agree that the GOP race is headed down one of two paths: Trump wins the nomination with the required number of delegates or the race heads to an open convention in Cleveland.

For Trump to receive the nomination outright, he has to win 56% of the remaining delegates. But after a series of campaign missteps and “out of the blue” policy statements requiring retractions, Trump’s presidential brand is taking a hit for which he may not recover. So, with Cruz needing 88% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination, and Kasich already mathematically out of the delegate hunt, the open convention scenario is more likely in play.

Since understanding convention politics is daunting for even the most diehard politico, these facts might help you get started:

Delegates Matter: Presidential primary elections are won by getting the required number of delegates, not by getting the majority of votes in the states. If no candidate reaches the majority of the required number of delegates (1237 for the GOP, 2383 for the Democratic Party), the nomination is determined by the majority vote of the elected state party delegates at the convention.

Who are the Convention Delegates?  Delegates are nominated and elected by district party leaders in each state.  Many have not even been selected yet, but once selected, political operatives from the Trump, Cruz and Kasich campaigns will be lobbying for their support.

Rules Matter: Each convention is governed by a set of rules determined by the elected convention delegates a week before the convention.  Some are permanent rules and others are temporary rules. Most notably, Rule 40(b), known as the 8 State Rule, is a temporary rule from the 2012 election which stipulates that a candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination.

Why Does the 8-State Rule Matter in 2016? Fearful that neither will reach the required number of delegates before the convention, both Trump and Cruz are using the 8-State Rule to suggest to voters that Kasich’s candidacy will be dead on arrival at the convention, creating a false narrative that a vote for Kasich is a wasted vote. Since rules are determined at each convention, no one knows whether the 8-State rule will prevail. If Kasich is able to garner a respectable number of delegates (which is likely to happen in upcoming coastal states), and if Kasich  continues to be the only candidate who consistently beats Hillary Clinton in national polls, it would seem suicidal for the GOP delegates to box Kasich out at the convention using the 8-State Rule.

What if No Candidate Receives the Majority of Delegates on the First Ballot at the Convention? Most delegates are bound to vote for the candidate who won their state or district on the first ballot. But if no one reaches 1237, over 70% of the delegates become unbound, aka free agents, to vote their conscience until one candidate wins.

Is the Vote Limited to the Three Current Candidates?  No. Nominations can be made from the floor, so new candidates can emerge. There might even be a proposed unity ticket, offering up a Presidential/Vice Presidential ticket. This is where we might see the reemergence of Marco Rubio or Scott Walker, the two previous “darlings” of the Republican Party.

As the race continues, the Madison Brief will continue to update this blog on the GOP nomination which is certain to be a wild ride.  For those who are interested in some fun facts about previous contested conventions, here are three Dolley’s Dinner Party Historical “Tidbits”:

1) A contested convention has occurred 10 times in our nation’s history, but only three eventual nominees came into the convention with the majority of delegates.

2) The last contested convention was in 1976 when Gerald Ford won the nomination on the first ballot.

3) The last time a contested convention produced a winning presidency was Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.