The Madison Brief:

While so much attention is focused on the Republican primary this week, the Democratic candidates are also waging quite a contest. Currently, Clinton has 1231 delegates compared to Sanders 576, but those numbers  belie how close this race has become. As a practical matter, both candidates are  concerned about acquiring delegates, and there are 697 at stake on Tuesday.   But momentum matters, and winning is the best way to get it.

Here’s the outlook for Sanders and Clinton on Tuesday:

Bernie Sanders:

There are three good reasons why the Sanders campaign is optimistic about having a good day on Tuesday: Michigan, money and momentum.

Michigan: Sanders stunning win over Clinton in Michigan last week had pollsters scratching their heads and Clinton campaign folks climbing the walls. No one was more surprised than Sanders as he grabbed his wrinkled sport coat and hurried to a makeshift stage to thank Michigan voters from a poolside at a Miami hotel.

Prior to the Michigan primary, eight different polling firms gave Clinton a double digit lead over Sanders, but Sanders ended up edging out Clinton, 49.8% to 48.3%.  Deeper analysis shows that the turnout among younger voters (18 – 29) equaled or surpassed the turnout of voters over the age of 65 (a Clinton stronghold). Sanders also won support from about 30 percent of Michigan’s black voters, a larger share than previous primaries in the South. On the issues, exit polls suggested that Sanders criticism against free trade resonated with Michigan voters. If he can replicate this performance on Tuesday, Sanders will do well in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

Money: Most campaigns don’t end because of a lack of enthusiasm; they end because they run out of money. Sanders is nowhere near to running out of money. In the 24 hours following his Michigan upset, Sanders raised $5 million from 175K voters. Moreover, his average donation is $27. That means his donor base is HUGE, and he can go back to these donors repeatedly  because they are nowhere near the giving cap of $2500. In total, Sanders campaign committee has raised $96 million, and outside groups supporting Sanders have raised $45K.

Momentum: Folks are definitely feeling the Bern.  Defying conventional wisdom, 74 year old Sanders is lighting up the hearts and minds of young people across the country — and they are voting in large numbers. Think of the fervor that takes place on college campuses during March Madness. Sanders is like the “home team”, seeded last, but keeps winning in spite of the odds. Momentum is as real in politics as it is in sports. And Sanders has the momentum.

Hillary Clinton:

After the Michigan upset, the Clinton campaign is getting ready for a long slog to the nomination. Even though the delegate count portends a Clinton nomination, her campaign is haunted by their inability to shake Sanders. Here is what to watch for:

Illinois: Rahm Emanuel, the Chicago mayor and supporter of Clinton, may be the eventual root cause if Clinton suffers a loss in her birth state of Illinois on Tuesday. The embattled mayor has been accused of political corruption and favoritism, blind ambition and a deafness to the needs of the minorities and the poor. Clinton needs the big delegate prize in Chicago to swing her way to win Illinois.

Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida: Current polls show Clinton well in the lead in Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina, but nothing feels like a sure thing anymore in the Clinton camp. All of these states’ economies and demographics are similar to Michigan; many folks have been struggling to find decent paying jobs, and are worried that foreign trade deals are crushing them.  Undoubtedly, if this is voters number one concern, Clinton’s support of NAFTA and TPP may hurt her at the polls.

Of Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina, Clinton is most likely to be successful in North Carolina. Ohio is a toss up because of Sanders appeal to the college crowd — and Ohio’s 17 year olds will be able to vote if they turn 18 at the time of the general election. As for Missouri, the buzz around the campaign trail is that it “feels” like Sanders country, even though polls show Clinton with a healthy lead.

Florida should be the only slam-dunk win for Clinton.

Money:  Sanders surge in mid western states is requiring the Clinton campaign to spend more money now than they had originally expected. Ad buys for the Clinton campaign are increasing in all five states this weekend, airing a new, warmer ad featuring Morgan Freeman, “All the Good”, which was designed to show Clinton’s competence, life long service and her softer side.  It is competing with Sander’s inspirational ad, “America”.

But lack of funds will never by Clinton’s downfall.   She is the queen of big money donors and has raised $130 million in her campaign committee, $58 million from outside groups and PACs who support her.

Has Bernie Hurt Hillary by Making the Race Competitive? 

So many Democrats wanted to anoint Hillary Clinton as their candidate early on in this campaign. Many thought that the candidacy of a  a 74-year old, self-proclaimed socialist could only muddle the primary process.

Instead, it may have strengthened the democratic party.  Few recognize the importance of Sanders message and how it speaks to the hearts of young people.  Remember that young adults under the age of 25 grew up in the shadow of  9/11.  For them, they only know a political world  marked by wars, terrorism, economic uncertainty and  inequality, racism, and dysfunction. Is it any wonder that Sanders populist message speaks to them?

Clinton, who is likely to be the nominee, has learned a lot from Sanders.    It has helped her become a better candidate. It has helped her see her blindsides, to listen, to evaluate her message, to prepare for a tough battle in the summer and fall against a Republican party that is in disarray.

Perhaps when the primary is over, they will each be able to claim victory.