The Madison Brief:

Hold onto your hats!  It’s Super Tuesday, and here is recent data from a national NBC/Survey Monkey Poll:

39% of GOP voters choose Trump

51% of GOP voters are scared of a Trump nomination

Trump, “The Divider”

To many Americans, the rise of Donald Trump is unfathomable:  he is a narcissistic buffoon; a conman who is dividing the country with his bigotry and hate, and whose petulance and erratic temperament is that of a third grader in the school yard.  He mocks people and institutions, and he is dangerous to the future of the Republican Party, our democratic values, and our country.

To many other Americans, Donald Trump is their savior, their voice.  Angry at the dysfunction in Washington DC, Trump voters have found their perfect foil:  the bigger than life, take no prisoners, arrogant businessman who eschews political correctness, as he extends his middle finger to the Washington establishment.   They have done the calculus and have concluded that our current political system is rigged , and Trump  will “Make America Great Again”.  

Three Primary Motivations Behind Trump’s Support

FRUSTRATION and PARTY POLITICS:  Speaker Paul Ryan said it best when he took over for John Boehner, “The House is broken,” the Wisconsin Republican said. “We’re not solving problems. We’re adding to them.”

This sector of Trump’s support are Republican Party loyalists who feel they have been lied to by their government, the system is rigged, and the country is going in the wrong direction.  They want to cut taxes, spur economic growth, end wasteful spending, ensure a robust military, and repeal Obamacare. And when they dutifully gave the  Republicans both majorities in the  House and Senate, the Republican’s accomplished nothing.  These voters are so frustrated at the ineptitude and dysfunction of Washington DC, the Obama Administration and their own Republican leadership that they want an outsider. They also privately relish a Trump and Hillary match up.

FEAR:  The same NBC/Survey Monkey Poll also identified these results about Trump voters:

• 67% have an unfavorable view of American Muslims
• 87% support a temporary ban against all non U.S. Muslim citizens from entering the U.S.
• 55% believe illegal immigrants working in the United States should be deported

Motivated by the fear of terrorism, and the fear, or belief, that their own American and/or religious  values are under attack, these voters champion Trump for his purported “strength” as a leader and a no-nonsense tactician.  Many view Obama’s presidency as a sham, dangerous to their way of life, so  Trump’s rhetoric fills their tank with red meat, offering one-dimensional solutions, and saying “exactly” the politically incorrect things heard around their own kitchen tables every day.

ECONOMY AND JOBS:  The South Carolina Primary exit polls are instructive in showing that there is an economic reason for Trump’s popularity.  Trump performed well in all South Carolina demographic groups, but he did particularly well with those with a high school education (or less), and those whose annual income is less than $50K.  

Over the past 15 years, South Carolina has lost over 31% of its manufacturing jobs, the vast majority coming from the textile, apparel and furniture sectors which are exposed to free trade policies.  Those jobs are not coming back, but they are being replaced by high tech jobs, requiring higher levels of education and technical expertise.  That leaves a lot of folks feeling the pain of a changing, global economy; many are unemployed, working at multiple jobs, or finding work with no real growth potential.  Is it any wonder that Trump’s business success and his message resonates with them?

Super Tuesday

Trump is projected to win nine states today, and possibly  Texas, the home state of Ted Cruz.  There are 661 delegates up for grabs, and depending on how many Trump gets, there may be no way for the Republican establishment candidates to stop him.  Even Trump’s recent comments about David Duke and the Ku Klux Clan may not hurt him, and the establishment folks are in near panic  as they openly discuss these three strategic options to stop Trump:

• Coalesce around one candidate (or ticket),
• Keep Rubio, Cruz and Kasich viable  in the hopes that they can peel off enough delegates to force a brokered convention in Cleveland, or
• The Poison Pill Option:  select one establishment candidate to run as an independent, split the vote, thwart Trump, and likely hand the election over to the Democratic nominee.

Yes, we may be watching the imploding of the Republican Party.  How does the “New Conservative Party” sound?  It just might happen.

Democracy is the great equalizer; each citizen has one vote.  And with a stroke of a pen, or the puncture of a ballot, we should all be prepared to experience a roller coaster lesson in Democracy in this 2016 Presidential Race.