The Madison Brief:

The Nevada Democratic Caucus and the South Carolina GOP Primary take center stage today as both the Democratic and Republican candidates have a lot at stake. 

Nevada Caucus:

The race between Clinton and Sanders is much too close to call.  Back in October, polls showed Clinton with a comfortable lead over Sanders, 46% – 31%, but most recent polls show Clinton barely edging Sanders 48% – 47%.   Clinton was stung by the decision of Nevada’s Culinary Union to stay neutral and not endorse either candidate.  The Culinary Union boasts a membership of 57 thousand and has been a get-out-the-vote machine for it’s mostly minority membership.  For that reason, Clinton may be in trouble – especially if Sanders’ younger, college constituents come to caucus in the same numbers as in Iowa.  Also watch the results from Elko, Sparks and Henderson.  This is where Obama picked up a lot of caucus votes in 2008, and where Sanders and Bill Clinton spent much of their time last week.

In the end, the Nevada Caucus is less about the awarded proportional delegates, as it is about the optics.  If Clinton can’t win in Nevada, can she win any caucus?  If Sanders fails to get minorities to vote for him, how can he win the presidency?  Both candidates are well funded and will continue.  But if Sanders wins, nagging questions about whether Clinton is the anointed Democratic nominee will grow louder.

South Carolina Primary:

Trump:  Some polls had him as high as 35%, but surely this has faded.  It is hard to imagine that his demeanor suits the South Carolina voter, and Trump did not hold back this week.  But if he does well, it may be just another signal of how the much the America electorate just wants to “throw the bums out”.  If he is in a close finish, this may be the first sign of Trump’s ceiling.

Cruz:  Expected to come in second, and a third place finish behind Rubio would be devastating.  Money is running out, and the primary calendar doesn’t favor his candidacy.

Rubio:  Coming back from a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, Rubio is gunning for Cruz.  With the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley and a nearly flawless re-entry on the trail after NH, the young gun might re-emerge in the top two.  Hurting him, however, is a last minute ad from Cruz highlighting his stance on immigration.

Bush:  Bush was expected to do very well in South Carolina, but he is still lagging in the polls.  The campaign will be happy with a third or fourth finish in double digits.  If not, this may be the end of the Bush legacy in presidential politics.

Kasich:  Kasich was never expected to do well in South Carolina, so he has a different strategic path.  Infused with more funding from big donors after his second place finish in NH, Kasich will go on no matter what.  And he had some good moments this week.  If you haven’t seen the “hug heard around the world”, click here.

Carson:  Will pick up a few votes, but the path to his nomination has already closed.  Carson   wants to spread his message, and he wants  to steal votes from Cruz; he is still fuming over the Cruz Campaign’s dirty tricks in New Hampshire to steer voters away from his candidacy.

A quick look at the folks who weighed in this week on the trail:

President George W. Bush:  Showed up to great fanfare to support his little “big” brother, Jeb.  Sporting a little less hair and his signature one-liners, he still looks more comfortable on the campaign trail than his brother, Jeb.   The Bush family is revered in South Carolina, and so the campaign thought it would be the punch in the arm the campaign needed.  Unfortunately, it may turn out to be only a pat on the shoulder.

Governor Nikki Haley:  Getting the endorsement of the bright, charismatic, even- tempered governor was going to be a huge gift to any candidate.  In a last minute gesture, she chose Rubio.  Then the campaign staged a nice “we are the world” moment and photo op of Congressman Trey Goudy, Senator Tim Scott, Governor Haley and Senator Rubio waving to an energized crowd.

U.S. Congressman Mark Sanford and Phil Robertson:  Don’t know who these guys are? While serving as Governor of South Carolina, Mark Sanford  went MIA for nine days in Buenos Aires to meet his mistress.  Phil Robertson is the Duck Dynasty patriarch.  Both have endorsed Cruz.  Hoo-Ya.

Pope Francis:  Not sure if he actually tossed a dig Trump’s way, but it made big news.  There is just something terribly wrong about having to write Pope Francis and Donald Trump in the same sentence.